Bloomberg ETF Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have significantly increased their predictions for the approval of spot cryptocurrency ETFs, including XRP, DOGE, and ADA, raising their odds to 90%. James Seyffart elaborated on the update in a post on X, stating, “Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher.
Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.” This shift in confidence comes amidst growing optimism about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) engaging more constructively with spot ETF applications, signaling a potential breakthrough in the regulatory landscape. Spot crypto ETFs provide a way for investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without requiring direct ownership of the assets. Moreover, spot ETFs have already proven to be a lucrative market, attracting tens of billions of dollars globally.
Less than two weeks ago, Balchunas and Seyffart estimated the chances of spot XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) ETFs being approved by the end of the year at under 90%. Now, those ETFs, along with proposals for Litecoin, Solana, Polkadot, and Avalanche, are considered to have a 90% or higher likelihood of SEC approval by the end of 2025.
Why Are Crypto ETFs More Likely Now?
The analysts attribute the improving odds to the SEC’s recent active engagement with the cryptocurrency industry, alongside a recovering crypto market. Currently, multiple spot crypto ETFs are under review by the US regulator as the market eagerly awaits approval. In early June, the SEC requested that issuers of spot Solana exchange-traded funds update their S-1 filings, a move that many see as a sign of potential progress toward approvals.
Following the approval of the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, attention quickly shifted to other leading digital assets like SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and DOGE. The resolution of the SEC and Ripple’s legal battle further boosted optimism in the crypto industry, signaling that the SEC might be more open to recognizing cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class. This shift could lead to less restrictive crypto regulations and more pro-crypto decisions in the future.
Moreover, Trump’s return to the White House ushered in a pro-crypto stance. A new pro-crypto SEC head replaced Gary Gensler, and a dedicated crypto team was established at the White House. These developments have influenced Bloomberg ETF analysts, who have increased their approval odds accordingly.
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Disclaimer
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